The day NFL free agency opens can be too much to handle for casual fans. Transactions take place at such a rapid rate, it’s sometimes difficult to keep up.
But that’s what makes this time of year so intriguing and exciting—the hope that your favorite team, whether they own the first pick in the draft or just won the Super Bowl, will add enough through free agency to set them up for success now and down the road.
A few positions are stacked this free-agent season, while a couple of others lack any real starting power. We could see as many as 11 starter-quality wide receivers change teams this offseason, but there are exactly zero starting quarterbacks on the market.
That is, unless you consider Josh McCown, who just signed a three-year, $14 million deal with the Cleveland Browns, starting material. Debatable.
At any rate, more than a few players will fly under the radar during free agency. They will most likely sign with teams at a cheaper rate than what they are worth either because of a saturated market, injury concerns or a variety of other reasons.
Cecil Shorts, Wide Receiver
The 15th receiver taken in the 2011 draft, Shorts has been one of the surprises of the entire draft class. He is fifth in the very talented class in receptions (176) and receiving yards (2,343) and is sixth in receiving touchdowns (12).
The former fourth-round pick out of Division-III powerhouse Mount Union in Ohio has done his damage with the Jacksonville Jaguars, which says a lot about him. The Jags haven’t exactly had the most stable quarterback situation in Shorts’ time.
He should sign a nice contract this offseason, but it won’t be as much as he’s worth because of the stars around him on the free-agent list.
Jeremy Maclin, Wide Receiver
Maclin’s situation is very different from Shorts’. He’s a potential super star who, until 2014, had never played all 16 games during the regular season. Since he was drafted 19th overall in the 2009 draft, he has missed 21 of 96 regular-season games with the Philadelphia Eagles.
He missed games with foot, hamstring, shoulder and hip injuries before tearing the ACL in his right knee during a July 2013 practice, forcing him to miss the entire season that fall.
But he came back with a vengeance in 2014, becoming the only receiver in Eagles franchise history to have a season of 80-plus receptions, 1,200-plus yards and 10-plus touchdowns. He showed what he can do, but teams will still be leery of his injury history.
Therefore, he may not get the deal he deserves.
Ryan Mathews, Running Back
He shows potential every season, and every season, he winds up hurt. If he could ever stay healthy, he’d be a star running back in the NFL.
Mathews has averaged at least 4.3 yards per carry in all but one of his five seasons in the league, but he’s also missed 18 games in five years. If you project his career stats over a 16-game season, he would average 1,048 yards rushing per season.
But injuries are why he will sign an average contract this offseason and have to go prove to someone he can be healthy for 16 games. It should be noted he topped 1,000 yards and six touchdowns the only two times he played at least 14 games in a season. That potential should help his agent negotiate a deal.
Bryan Bulaga, Right Tackle
Like Maclin and Mathews, Bulaga has spent too much time on injury reports. He was barely there in 2014, though, and he played well—Pro Football Focus rated him as its fourth-best right tackle last season (subscription required).
The Packers would be wise to re-sign Bulaga. When healthy, he is solid in pass protection and probably about average as a run blocker. That’s good enough to last in the NFL for years as a right tackle.
But if he leaves, it will be because there are greener pastures than that of the Frozen Tundra and blocking for Aaron Rodgers. Greener also refers to money, of course, and while he may not sign the richest deal among free-agent right tackles this offseason (that honor may go to Doug Free), he may be the most underrated.
Mike Pollak, Offensive Guard
Originally a second-round pick of the Indianapolis Colts in 2008, Pollak has been a full-time starter only twice. He started 13 games as a rookie, and then did so again in 2010 with the Colts. That year, he did not allow a single sack in 605 pass-blocking opportunities while serving as Peyton Manning’s right guard.
He can play both sides of the ball, which should help him find a team quickly this offseason. But he’s not a big name like Orlando Franklin, Mike Iupati or even his former teammate with the Cincinnati Bengals, Clint Boling.
Pollak will sign somewhere to be a team’s full-time right guard, and he will do so for chump change compared to what the three mentioned above get. At 30 years old, he shouldn’t expect to get top dollar—especially since he hasn’t been a full-time player often throughout his career.
But his signing team will be very happy with his ability to keep the quarterback clean and open lanes for running backs.
Stephen Paea, Defensive Tackle
He’s not a name people know as being a pass-rushing beast, but he most certainly is. Paea was one of the better defensive tackles last season in getting to the quarterback, as seen by his pass-rushing Productive Play Percent.
The Bears took him in the second round of the 2011 draft, and he became a starter in 2012. Since then, he has played in all but four games; he’s an underrated rusher who could stick around in Chicago as they switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4—Paea is a great three-technique candidate.
If he chooses to leave, he could sign basically anywhere he wants given that fact; teams can use him in a three- or four-man line and get the same production out of him. He’s strong as an ox and would be a great asset to any line, but he’ll be docked because his name isn’t Ndamukong Suh.
Dan Williams, Nose Tackle
Nose tackles aren’t known for rushing the passer. Williams, a former first-round pick, should be in high demand this offseason, but he likely won’t command the contract he deserves because of two factors: He’s not a full-time player and he doesn’t excel at getting to the quarterback.
But if you need to improve your run defense, Williams is your guy. He has been one of the highest-graded interior linemen in the league by PFF’s run defense standards in each of the past three seasons despite playing in fewer than 40 percent of the Arizona Cardinals’ defensive snaps.
Akeem Ayers, Outside Linebacker
Ayers went from an edge rusher who couldn’t get on the field in Tennessee to one who helped the New England Patriots win the Super Bowl in a few short months. The Titans sent him to New England for a sixth-round pick, then watched as he began to blossom into the productive rusher he was supposed to be for them.
Ayers sits far behind fellow free agent Justin Houston in the talent department, but he can be of service to a team in need of edge help. In the right system, he could be an eight-to-10-sack rusher for the next handful of seasons.
Kareem Jackson, Cornerback
Darrelle Revis, Ike Taylor, Antonio Cromartie and Charles Tillman are all big names hitting free agency this offseason. But one of the best young names out there is Jackson, a former first-round pick of the Houston Texans who has had an up-and-down career but showed he can be a reliable starter on Sundays.
His 92.6 career passer rating allowed is elevated because of some early struggles and a forgettable 2013 season, but he picked off three passes last season and finished 18th with a 74.1 rating allowed, according to PFF.
What makes Jackson an attractive option is that not only does he play well on the outside, he dabbled at nickelback in 2014 and has the speed to keep up with the smaller, speedier slot receivers.
Kurt Coleman, Safety
He’s been tabbed as being overly aggressive—even “dirty” at times. But Coleman is a fierce competitor who is good in the box as a strong safety or deep as a roamer.
He burst onto the scene as a seventh-round pick in 2010 with the Eagles, but when he earned a starting role in 2011, he began struggling in coverage and missing tackles.
But in 2014 while with the Kansas City Chiefs, Coleman regained his form. He started only three games and played just under 400 snaps on defense, but he was effective both in coverage—finishing sixth among safeties with a 24.0 passer rating allowed—and against the run while also shoring up his tackling issues.
He won’t be a big-ticket signing for anyone on March 10, but to some team, he might be a savior on the back end. He’s a veteran and knows how to direct players around him before the snap.
At just 26 years old, Coleman could still earn a big contract after this one. He’s trending in the right direction.
Photo: USA Today